Abstract.

The general properties and regularities of functioning for organizational systems (OS) in conditions of a high degree of uncertainty are analyzed. A conceptual model of OS functioning is constructed. Formal assignment of tasks for choosing rational strategic decisions in the OS from a limited set of alternatives are developed. A method for estimating the uncertainty of information necessary to choose a rational strategic solution is presented. The principal opportunities for obtaining quantitative or qualitative (comparative) assessments of the risks for negative consequences of the decisions made are considered. The method of organization for seminars on the development and examination possible scenarios of the negative consequences of strategic decisions in the OS is presented. The main organizational and methodological issues of complex examination for strategic decisions are discussed.

Keywords:

organizational system (OS), strategic decision, negative consequences of decisions, conceptual model of OS, state of OS, external environment, emergency situation, risk, risk situation.

pp. 3-22

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