 |
Л.Е. Варшавский "Моделирование динамики ключевых показателей рынков компонентов высокопроизводительных вычислительных систем" |
 |
Аннотация. В статье проводится технико-экономический анализ развития рынков компонентов высокопроизводительных вычислительных систем. Рассматриваются экономико-математические модели развития крупных компаний-производителей микропроцессоров и микросхем. С использованием игрового подхода исследуются сценарии среднесрочного прогнозирования динамики ключевых показателей рынка микропроцессоров архитектуры x86 и ARM в целом и для серверов. Ключевые слова: микропроцессоры, серверы, микроэлектроника, экономико-математическое моделирование, динамические игры, сценарии. Стр. 12-27. Полная версия статьи в формате pdf. REFERENCES 1. Varshavskii L.E. Issledovanie dinamiki pokazatelej rynkov naukoemkoj produkcii (na primere rynkov komponentov personal’nyh komp’juterov) [Studying dynamics of market indicators of science-intensive products (the case of markets of PC components)] Jekonomika i matematicheskie metody=Economics and mathematical methods. 2004, vol. 40, no 1, pp. 101–116. 2. Aizcorbe, A. and Kortum, S. Moores Law and the Semiconductor Industry: A Vintage Model/Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 2005.– Volume 107.–Issue 4.–pp. 603–630. 3. Pillai U. A Model of Technological Progress in the Microprocessor Industry// The Journal Of Industrial Economics, 2010.– Vol.LXI.–No. 4.– pp. 877–912. 4. Goettler, R. L., and Gordon, B. R. Does AMD Spur Intel to Innovate More?// Journal of Political Economy, 2011.– Vol. 119.–No. 6.– pp. 1141-1200. 5. Macieira J. Extending the Frontier: A Structural Model of Investment and Technological. Competition in the Supercomputer Industry. 2008. Available at: ftp://repec.econ.vt.edu/Papers/%20Macieiria/macieira_superc_jan22.pdf/(accessed April 17, 2011). 6. Macieira J. A Dynamic Model of Innovation and Technological Competition in the Supercomputer Industry. 2009. Available at: http://citeseerx.ist. psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.517.9875 &rep=rep1&type=pdf/(accessed April 17, 2011). 7. Malashevich B.M., Malashevich D.B. Mikroelektronika. Kratkie osnovy i istoriya razvitiya// Bazovye lektsii po elektronike. Tom II. Tverdotel’naya elektronika [Foundations and History of Development //Basic Lectures on Electronics. Vol. II. Solidstate Electronics] /Pod obshch. red. V.M.Proleiko. Moscow: Tekhnosfera, 2009, pp. 96–170. 8. Kvamme E.F. Life in Silicon Valley: A first-hand view of the region growth/The Silicon Valley Edge: a habitat for innovation and entrepreneurship/ed. By Chong-Moon Lee et al. Stanford University Press. Stanford. 2000. pp. 59–80. 9. Lecuyer C. Fairchild Semiconductor and its influence/The Silicon Valley Edge: a habitat for innovation and entrepreneurship/ed. By Chong-Moon Lee et al. Stanford University Press. Stanford. 2000. pp.158–183. 10. Grouv A. Vyzhivayut tol’ko paranoiki [Only the Paranoid Survive]. Moscow: Al’pina Biznes Buks, 2004, 200 p. 11. Gordon Moore. Progress in Digital Integrated Electronics. Available at: http://download.intel. com/museum/Moores_Law/Articles-Press_Releases/Gordon_Moore_1975_Speech.pdf/ (accessed February 7, 2015). 12. Dennard R. H., Gaensslen F. H., Yu H-N, Rideout V.I., Bassous E., and LeBlanc A. R., Design of ion-implanted MOSFET’s with very small physical dimensions// IEEE Journal of Solid-State Circuits. 1974. SC-9, pp. 256–268. 13. Varshavskii L.E. Problemy povysheniya energoeffektivnosti apparatnykh sredstv v oblasti informatsionnykh tekhnologii [Problems of Energy Efficiency Increase of Information Technologies Equipment Infrastructure].Trudy ISA RAN=Proceedings of ISA RAS, 2013, vol. 63, no. 3, pp. 3-19. 14. Mitropol’skij Ju.I. Jelementnaja baza i arhitektura budushhih superkomp’juterov [The element base and architecture of future supercomputers]. Mik rojelektronika=Microelectronics. 2015, vol 44, no 3, pp. 163–179. 15. Shchuka A.A. Nanoelektronika [Nanoelectronics]. Moscow, Fizmatkniga, 2007. 16. Rudometov E. Materinskie platy i chipsety. 4-e izd. Anatomiya PK [Motherboards and Chipsets. 4th ed. Anatomy of PC]. Sankt-Peterburg, Piter, 2007, 368 pp. 17. Perry T.S. Morris Chang: Foundry Father. Available at: //http://spectrum.ieee.org/at-work/tech-careers/morris-chang-foundry-father / (accessed 19 Apr 2011). 18. Varshavskii L.E. Priblizhennye metody issledovanija dinamiki pokazatelej rynochnoj struktury [Approximate Methods of Studying Dynamics of Market Structure]. Komp’juternye issledovanija i modelirovanie= Computer Research and Modeling, 2012. vol. 4, no 1. pp.219-229. 19. Varshavskii L.E. Ispol’zovanie metodov teorii upravleniya dlya formirovaniya rynochnykh struktur [Control theory methods for creating market structures]. Komp’yuternye issledovaniya i modelirovanie= Computer Research and Modeling, 2014, vol. 6, no. 5, pp. 839–859. 20. Gordon S. Costs of Adjustment, the Aggregation problem and Investment// The Review of Economics and Statistics. 1992. Vol.74. No3. P. 422–429. 21. Basar T., Olsder G.J. Dynamic Noncooperative Game Theory. – London/New York: Academic Press. – 1995. 22. Dockner E.J., Jorgenson S. et. al. Differential Games in Economics and Management Science. – Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. – 2000. 23. Kuzin L.T. Raschet i proektirovanie diskretnykh sistem upravleniya [Projecting Discrete Control Systems]. Moscow: Mashgiz, 1962. 24. Jury E.I. Theory and Applications of the Z-Transform Method. John Wiley, NY, 1964. 25. Varshavskii L.E. Metody rascheta optimal’nyh po Njeshu strategij uchastnikov dinamicheskih igr na osnove jelektronnyh tablic [Methods of computing optimal Nash strategies in dynamical with the help of spreadsheets]. Analiz i modelirovanie jekonomicheskih i social’nyh processov /Matematika. Komp’juter. Obrazovanie: Sb. nauchnyh trudov. Vypusk 22. №3. M. – Izhevsk: Institut komp’juternyh issledovanij, 2015. pp. 84–96.
|