
S. V. Dubovsky, S. N. Osipov Tools to predict the dynamics of GDP growth 

Abstract. The internal and external factors influencing the economic growth of the countries, in particular, Russia, are analyzed. A macro model is proposed in the form of a regression, where on the left the GDP growth rate, and on the right the regressors – the main control effects: the employment growth rate, the product of the share of gross savings in GDP on the number of employed specialists in R & D, the growth rate of oil prices on the world market. Computational experiments are carried out to estimate regression parameters on the statistics of Russia and Kazakhstan. The contributions of various factors to the economic growth rate are estimated. Conclusions are given. Keywords: globalization, paternalism, sanctions, innovations, gross accumulation, energy carriers, oil price, macro model for economic growth rates, regression, scenarios for control actions, forecasting. PP. 2631. DOI: 10.14357/20790279180403 References 1. Popkov Yu.S. Mathematical demoeconomics. Macrosystem approach. Moscow:URSS.2012. 2. Livshits V.N., Livshits S.V. System analysis of nonstationary economy of Russia (19922009): market reforms, crisis, investment policy. – M. : Poly Grant Service. 2010 452 p. 3. Livshits V.N. System analysis of market reforming of nonstationary economy of Russia: 19922013. M. : LENAND, 2013 – 640. 4. Dubovsky S.V. Energy and income distribution in economic development. Mathematical models. M:ROHOS, 2004. 5. Jones Ch.I. R&DBased Models of Economic Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 1995, 103(4): 759784. 6. Sadovnichiy V.A., Akayev A.A., Korotaev A.V., Malkov S.Yu., Sokolov V.N., Analysis and modeling of global and country’s economy. M. LENAND, 2016, P. 346. 7. Dubovsky S.V. Scientific and technical progress in global modeling. Ed. Science. System studies, Yearbook 1988, ed.1989, Pp. 112135. 8. Russia in numbers. Brief statistical guide. M., Rosstat. 19962017.
