System diagnostics of socio-economic processes
S. V. Dubovsky, S. N. Osipov Tools to predict the dynamics of GDP growth
System analysis in medicine and biology
Methods and models of system analysis
Dynamic systems
S. V. Dubovsky, S. N. Osipov Tools to predict the dynamics of GDP growth

Abstract.

The internal and external factors influencing the economic growth of the countries, in particular, Russia, are analyzed. A macro model is proposed in the form of a regression, where on the left the GDP growth rate, and on the right the regressors – the main control effects: the employment growth rate, the product of the share of gross savings in GDP on the number of employed specialists in R & D, the growth rate of oil prices on the world market. Computational experiments are carried out to estimate regression parameters on the statistics of Russia and Kazakhstan. The contributions of various factors to the economic growth rate are estimated. Conclusions are given.

Keywords:

globalization, paternalism, sanctions, innovations, gross accumulation, energy carriers, oil price, macro model for economic growth rates, regression, scenarios for control actions, forecasting.

PP. 26-31.

DOI: 10.14357/20790279180403

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