System diagnostics of socio-economic processes
System analysis in medicine and biology
Methods and models of system analysis
V.N. Tsygichko, D.S. Chereshkin Scenario method of forecasting and assessing the risk for negative consequences of strategic decisions in organizational systems
Dynamic systems
V.N. Tsygichko, D.S. Chereshkin Scenario method of forecasting and assessing the risk for negative consequences of strategic decisions in organizational systems

Abstract.

The methodological basis and content of the scenario method of forecasting socio-economic processes are outlined. A method for constructing scenarios of negative developments in the organizational system (OS), under the influence of strategic decisions is presented. A scenario method for assessing the risks of negative consequences of strategic decisions in the OS has been developed and an example of its use has been given.

Keywords:

organizational system (OS), scenarios, crisis, strategic decision, negative consequences of decisions, prediction of OS evolution, state of OS, external environment, emergency situation, risk, crisis situation.

PP. 74-83.

DOI: 10.14357/20790279180407

References

1. Tsygichko V.N., Chereshkin D.S., Smolyan G.L. Analis I ozenka negativnih posledstviy strategicheskih reseniy v organisazionnih sistemah [ Analysis and evaluation of the negative effects for strategic decisions in organizational systems]. Trudi Instituta sistemnogo analisa Rossiyskoy akademii nauk (ISA RAN), Tom 68, Vipusk 1. Moskva 2018.- S. 3-23.
2. Tsygichko V.N. Szenarniy metod prognozirovania sozialno-ikonomicheskogo razvitia regiona [Scenario method of forecasting the socioeconomic development for the region] /Pod red. V.A, Cheresheva, A.I. Tatarkina, S.Y. Glazeva. Ekaterinburg: Institut ikonomiki UrO RAN. 2011. S. 90-126/
3. Tsygichko V.N. Voennaia operaziia SSA protiv Irana: vozmoznie szenarii I ih posledstviia [US military operation against Iran: possible scenarios and their consequences] / Indeks bezopasnosti №3-4 (102-103) 2012. S. 219-134.
4. Tsygichko V.N. 2009. Prognozirovanie sozialnoekonomicheskih prozessov [Prediction of socioeconomic processes] Moscow: The LIBERCOM Book House, 240 s.
5. Tsygichko V.N., Smolyan G.L., Han-Magomedov. Internet v Rossii. Perspektivi rasvitia. [Internet in Russia. Development prospects]. – M..: Editorial URSS. 2004. 200 s.
 

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