Abstract.

The methodological basis and content of the scenario method of forecasting socio-economic processes are outlined. A method for constructing scenarios of negative developments in the organizational system (OS), under the influence of strategic decisions is presented. A scenario method for assessing the risks of negative consequences of strategic decisions in the OS has been developed and an example of its use has been given.

Keywords:

organizational system (OS), scenarios, crisis, strategic decision, negative consequences of decisions, prediction of OS evolution, state of OS, external environment, emergency situation, risk, crisis situation.

PP. 74-83.

DOI: 10.14357/20790279180407

References

1. Tsygichko V.N., Chereshkin D.S., Smolyan G.L. Analis I ozenka negativnih posledstviy strategicheskih reseniy v organisazionnih sistemah [ Analysis and evaluation of the negative effects for strategic decisions in organizational systems]. Trudi Instituta sistemnogo analisa Rossiyskoy akademii nauk (ISA RAN), Tom 68, Vipusk 1. Moskva 2018.- S. 3-23.
2. Tsygichko V.N. Szenarniy metod prognozirovania sozialno-ikonomicheskogo razvitia regiona [Scenario method of forecasting the socioeconomic development for the region] /Pod red. V.A, Cheresheva, A.I. Tatarkina, S.Y. Glazeva. Ekaterinburg: Institut ikonomiki UrO RAN. 2011. S. 90-126/
3. Tsygichko V.N. Voennaia operaziia SSA protiv Irana: vozmoznie szenarii I ih posledstviia [US military operation against Iran: possible scenarios and their consequences] / Indeks bezopasnosti №3-4 (102-103) 2012. S. 219-134.
4. Tsygichko V.N. 2009. Prognozirovanie sozialnoekonomicheskih prozessov [Prediction of socioeconomic processes] Moscow: The LIBERCOM Book House, 240 s.
5. Tsygichko V.N., Smolyan G.L., Han-Magomedov. Internet v Rossii. Perspektivi rasvitia. [Internet in Russia. Development prospects]. – M..: Editorial URSS. 2004. 200 s.