Abstract.

The work is devoted to the evaluation of the influence of fundamental science on macroeconomic indicators. The regression model of the specific gross domestic product elasticity is considered with the aim of revealing the dependence between the indicators of innovation and economic development. As a tool for restoring model parameters, a method of entropy-robust estimation based on the maximum entropy principle was developed. The main advantage of this approach is the invariance by measurement error distribution and the likelihood function. The developed model is used to construct a randomized forecast of GDP growth for the next 5 years.

Keywords:

macroeconomy, GDP, elasticity, math modeling, principle of maximum entropy.

PP. 51-63.

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