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A.S. Borovsky, N.A. Shumilina Unclear situational network for assessment of the design risk of equipment failure |
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Abstract. In the management of projects of industrial enterprises there is uncertainty and risk. The study examines the risk of equipment failure. To make decisions in the project taking into account the risk of equipment failure, the model "situation - control strategy - action" is proposed. The search for a management strategy is proposed to be formed according to a fuzzy situation network. The state of the equipment in the project taking into account the risk of failure is represented in the form of a number of situations. Three classes of typical fuzzy situations are distinguished: typical fuzzy situations that characterize the risk of equipment failure to increase the project implementation time, typical fuzzy situations that characterize the risk of equipment failure to increase the project budget, typical fuzzy situations characterizing the risk of equipment failure in deteriorating product quality. The input information contained in the factorial level is described. The article presents a fragment of the level hierarchical fuzzy situation network for the formation of control decisions. Keywords: risk of equipment failure, fuzzy situation network, management strategy, management decisions pp. 87-93 References1. Avduevsky, V.S. 1987. Reliability and Efficiency in Engineering: A Handbook in 10 volumes [Т. 2: Mathematical methods in the theory of reliability and efficiency, Ed. B. V. Gnedenko]. M .: Mechanical Engineering. 280 p. 2. Rusyn A.Yu., Abdulhamed M., Baryshev Ya.V. 2016. Algorithms of an automated control system for testing equipment for reliability [Software products and systems] №2 (114). - Available at: http://www. swsys.ru/index.php?page=article&id=4143. 3. Shakhanov V.I., Varfolomeev I.A., Ershov E.V., Yudina O.V. 2016. Forecasting equipment failures in conditions of a small number of failures [Bulletin of Cherepovets State University]. №6. Available at: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/v/prognozirovanie-otkazov-oborudovaniya-v-usloviyah-malogo-kolichestva-polomok (accessed October, 8, 2017). 4. Menshikov V.I. Menshikova K.V. 2004. Practical use of the method of situational management in management systems by safe operation [Bulletin of the Murmansk State Technical University]. Volume 7. № 3. 370-374. 5. Borovsky A.S., Tarasov A.D. 2012. Adoption of design solutions based on the models "Situation - management strategy - action" for the modernization of physical protection [Infocommunication technologies]. Volume 10, №3. 60-67. 6. Kriger L.S., Kvyatkovskaya I.Yu. 2012. Formalization of typical situations in problems of control of public transport movement [Nauch.-Tekhn. statements St. Petersburg. state. polytech-nical. un-ta.]. №3 (150). 106-110. 7. Gaibova T.V., Shumilina N.A. 2015. Adaptive management of the process of developing design capacities taking into account the production risk of equipment failure [Internet Journal of Science]. №3 (28). Available at: https://naukovedenie.ru/PDF/156TVN315.pdf. 8. Gaibova T.V., Shumilina N.A. 2015. Formalization of the task of managing the design risk of equipment failure [Scientific and Technical Herald of the Volga Region]. № 2. Available at: ntvp.ru/files/NTVP_2_2015.php. 9. Melikhov A.N., Bernshtein L.S., Korovin S. Ya. eds. 1990. Situational advisory systems with fuzzy logic. Moscow: Nauka. 272 p.
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