Abstract. 

Forming the macromodel of Russia, in which information for 2012-2021 years (including period of spreading coronavirus) is taken into account, and its using for forecasting economic dynamics of Russia are described in the article. Results of that forecasting for the period until 2033 year by two scenarios, each of which is characterized by values of world prices of Urals oil and natural gas and reference price of gold for 2021-2033 years, are presented; the preferable scenario for development of Russian economy is determined by these results. Precisions of forecasts of Russian economy indicators for 2020-2021 years, received with using the macromodel, constructed by authors formerly (without taking influence of coronavirus into account), are estimated. Comparison of results of forecasting by it and by the macromodel, described in this article, is used for estimating of influence of coronavirus on economy.

Keywords: 

forecasting economic dynamics, macromodel, models of variables, endogenous and exogenous variables, solving problem of forecasting, scenario, coronavirus, precision of forecast of indicator, dynamics of an indicator.

Стр. 60-72.

 

References

1. Shirov A.A., Mikheeva N.N., Gusev M.S., Savchishina K.E. Makroekonomicheskaya stabilizatsiya i prostranstvennoe razvitie ekonomiki [Macroeconomic stabilization and spatial development of the economy]. // Problemy prognozirovaniya [Problems of forecasting], 2019, 5:3-15.

2. Orlova E.A., Belousov D.R., Galimov D.I. O modeli potentsialnogo VVP i razryva vypuska dlya rossiyskoy ekonomiki [A model of potential GDP and output gap for the Russian economy]. // Problemy prognozirovaniya [Problems of forecasting], 2020, 2:60-71.

3. Ushachev I.G., Kharina M.V., Chekalin V.S. Dolgosrochnyy prognoz razvitiya selskogo khozyaystva Rossii na baze ekonomiko-matematicheskoy modeli [Long-term forecast of agricultural development in Russia based on economic and mathematical model]. // Problemy prognozirovaniya [Problems of forecasting], 2022, 3:64-77.

4. Mazurova O.V., Gal`perova E.V. Energopotreblenie v Rossii: sovremennoe sostoyanie i prognoznye issledovaniya [Energy consumption in Russia: current state and forecast]. // Problemy prognozirovaniya [Problems of forecasting], 2023, 1:156-168.

5. Galin D.M., Sumarokova I.V. Primenenie makroekonomicheskikh modeley Rossii i eyo regionov dlya prognozirovaniya ikh ekonomicheskoy dinamiki [Using macroeconomic models of Russia and its regions for forecasting their economic dynamics]. // Trudy ISA RAN [Proceedings of Institute

for Systems Analysis], 2019, 69(1):37-49.

6. rosstat.gov.ru

7. www.cbr.ru

8. Galin D.M., Sumarokova I.V. Prognozirovanie razvitiya ekonomiki Rossii s uchyotom novogo klassifikatora vidov ekonomicheskoy deyatelnosti [Forecasting development of economy of Russia with taking the new classification of kinds of economic activities into account]. // Trudy ISA RAN [Proceedings of Institute for Systems Analysis], 2022, 72(1):35-47.

9. bhom.ru

10. Johnston J. Econometric methods. 2nd ed. Tokyo: McGraw-Hill, Kogakusha Ltd, 1972. 448 p.