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D.M. Galin, I.V. Sumarokova Using macroeconomic models of Russia and its regions for forecasting their economic dynamics |
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Abstract. The methodology and process of forming macroeconomic models of Russia and its regions are described in the article. Long-term forecasting indicators of their economy is executed with using these macroeconomic models. Results of such forecasting for the period until 2025 year by different scenarios are presented. Keywords: macromodel, models of variables, combination of regression equations, forecasting for prospect, scenario, evaluation of accuracy of forecasts of indicators. PP. 37-49. DOI: 10.14357/20790279190104 References 1. Ivanov V.N., Ovsienko Yu.V., Tikhonov A.O., Yasinsky Yu.M. Sravnitelnyy analiz institutsionalnoy i ekonomicheskoy dinamiki Rossii i Belorussii (2000-e gody) [Comparative analysis of institutional and economic dynamics in Russia and Belarussia (2000s)]. // Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody [Economics and mathematical methods], 2011, v.47(3):3-18. 2. Skripnik D.V. Makroekonomicheskaya model rossiyskoy ekonomiki [A Macroeconomic model of the Russian economy]. // Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody [Economics and mathematical methods], 2016, v.52(3):92-113. 3. Galin D.M., Sumarokova I.V. Makromodel rossiyskoy ekonomiki s uchyotom vzaimnogo vliyaniya razlichnykh vidov ekonomicheskoy deyatelnosti i informatsionnykh tekhnologiy [Macromodel of Russian economy with taking mutual influences of various economic activities and information technologies into account]. // Trudy ISA RAN [Proceedings of Institute for Systems Analysis], 2014, v.64(4):39-52. 4. Galin D.M., Sumarokova I.V. Makromodeli ekonomiki Tsentralnogo federalnogo okruga, vklyuchayushchie bloki informatsionnykh tekhnologiy [Macromodels of economy of Central federal district, including blocks of information technologies]. // Trudy ISA RAN [Proceedings of Institute for Systems Analysis], 2016, v.66(3):55-70. 5. Galin D.M., Sumarokova I.V. Makromodeli ekonomiki goroda Moskvy, vklyuchayushchie bloki informatsionnykh tekhnologiy [Macromodels of economy of Moscow city, including blocks of information technologies]. // Trudy ISA RAN [Proceedings of Institute for Systems Analysis], 2017, v.67(1):28-40. 6. www.gks.ru 7. www.cbr.ru 8. Johnston J. Econometric methods. 2nd ed. Tokyo: McGraw-Hill, Kogakusha Ltd, 1972. 448 p.
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