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S. V. Dubovsky Forecasting periodic social and economic Crises with the help of regress
Mathematical models of socio-economic processes
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S. V. Dubovsky Forecasting periodic social and economic Crises with the help of regress
Abstract. 

The task of creation of regress, which allows to calculate initial dates of the future world social and economic periodic crises in cycles of Kondratiev is solved. For regress as a special historical matrix the information base is formed of initial dates of already holding crises. Regress includes initial date of crisis as dependent function and two regressors as initial date of previous crisis and intervals of world wars. The information on results of calculations is compared to supervision. Crisis “2018-2020” as an opposition globalization and protectionism is described. Forecasts of the nearest crises are submitted.

Keywords: 

cycle of Кondratiev, initial dates of crises, forecasts of crises, regress, information base of regress, globalization, protectionism, social discomfort, world wars, pandemia.

PP. 62-66.

DOI: 10.14357/20790279210107
 
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